Beyond crude oil

Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG exporter after Australia, shipping primarily to Japan, South Korea, India and Europe. The entire export infrastructure — liquefaction trains, storage, loading berths — sits at Ras Laffan on the Gulf coast, 100% Hormuz-dependent.

Ras Laffan has been shut since March 2, 2026. Qatar's 77 mtpa of LNG capacity — roughly 210 million cubic feet per day — is offline. Japan and South Korea, which hold long-term contracts for Qatari LNG, are drawing down emergency gas stocks. European buyers who shifted to Qatari LNG after 2022 are exposed again.

No alternative single source can replace this volume. US LNG (Sabine Pass, Freeport, Corpus Christi) is operating at capacity and selling into a bidding war. Australian LNG is fully contracted. TTF European gas futures have spiked sharply.

Helium is extracted as a by-product of natural gas processing. Qatar's North Field gas contains unusually high helium concentrations, making Ras Laffan the single most important helium production site on earth. It accounts for roughly 30% of global supply.

The semiconductor industry is the most acutely exposed. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel fabs use helium continuously for chip cooling, leak detection, and as a carrier gas in lithography. Typical fab stockpiles run 4–8 weeks. With Ras Laffan offline and no rapid scale-up possible from US or Russian sources, chip production faces a potential constraint within weeks.

Unlike crude oil, helium cannot be synthesised, recycled at scale, or replaced by another gas. The only response is demand rationing — hospitals and semiconductor fabs compete for the same limited supply.

LPG is produced as a by-product of both crude oil refining and natural gas processing. Saudi Arabia (via Aramco's Ju'aymah terminal), Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are the dominant Gulf exporters. Saudi LPG moves through Hormuz; there is no Red Sea bypass for Ju'aymah.

India is the most exposed single country. India imports roughly two-thirds of its LPG from the Gulf for 300 million households using LPG cylinders as their primary cooking fuel. With Gulf exports blocked, India has approached US suppliers — but at 5–6 weeks shipping time from the Gulf Coast, this is not an immediate solution. The Indian government has begun rationing cylinder refills.

Naphtha is produced from crude oil distillation and from condensate processing. Qatar's North Field condensate — 1.1 million bbl/d, now offline — was one of the largest single sources of naphtha-rich condensate globally. Kuwait and UAE also export significant volumes.

Asian steam crackers — the plants that convert naphtha into ethylene, propylene and other petrochemical building blocks — are scrambling for alternative feedstock. Japanese and Korean petrochemical complexes that were running at 90%+ utilisation on Gulf naphtha have cut rates to 60–70%. Downstream polymer prices (polyethylene, polypropylene) are rising sharply, affecting packaging, automotive, electronics and textile supply chains.

The Gulf's large export refineries — Saudi Aramco's Jubail complex, ADNOC's Ruwais refinery in the UAE, and Kuwait's Al-Zour — export diesel primarily to Asia, East Africa and Europe. Saudi exports move partly via Yanbu (Red Sea bypass), partially insulating them from Hormuz.

The constraint is refinery feedstock, not refinery capacity. With crude production curtailed, Gulf refineries are running at reduced rates even where the refinery itself is physically intact. Al-Zour, Kuwait's newest refinery, is operating at ~40% capacity due to feedstock shortage. Diesel crack spreads have widened sharply.

Dubai International and Doha Hamad are the two largest refuelling hubs for Asia-Europe aviation. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways and dozens of connecting carriers depend on Gulf jet fuel supply. With Doha shut and Dubai operating on reduced refinery output, jet fuel availability is tightening.

Airlines on the Asia-Europe trunk routes have begun carrying extra fuel from origin airports — a practice called "tankering" — to reduce Gulf refuelling stops. This increases fuel burn, reduces payload, and raises operating costs by 8–12% per flight. Several carriers have suspended Gulf-transiting routes entirely, adding 3–4 hours to Asia-Europe journeys via northern routes.

Natural gas is both the feedstock and the energy source for ammonia synthesis (the Haber-Bosch process). The Gulf's abundant, cheap gas made it a dominant ammonia and urea exporter — Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden, SABIC, Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), and UAE's FERTIL collectively account for roughly 20% of global ammonia trade.

QAFCO at Ras Laffan is completely offline. Saudi Ma'aden exports are partially rerouted via Yanbu. The timing is acute: March–April is the primary fertiliser application season for South Asian and Southeast Asian rice and wheat crops. Indian and Pakistani buyers who cannot source Gulf urea are turning to Russian and Chinese suppliers — at significantly higher prices and longer lead times.

Saudi SABIC (Jubail) and ADNOC Chemicals (Ruwais) are among the world's largest petrochemical producers. Both use ethane from associated gas as feedstock — giving them a structural cost advantage over naphtha-based crackers in Asia and Europe.

SABIC's Jubail exports face Hormuz disruption. ADNOC Ruwais has partial bypass capability via Fujairah port. The constraint is not production capacity but export logistics — product is accumulating in storage at Jubail faster than it can be moved. Polyethylene and polypropylene prices in Asia have risen 18–22% since the crisis began.