Source hierarchy
Three tiers, strictly ordered
Every number published on Contango Energy is assigned to one of three source tiers. The tier determines how the number is labelled and how much weight it carries. Higher tiers displace lower tiers when both are available.
Tier 1
Official issuer / regulator
Direct publication from the producing entity or its regulatory authority. This is the primary source — preferred in all cases.
Aramco OSP release · SOMO Iraq · KPC Kuwait · ADNOC · EIA · IEA · OPEC JMMC communiqué · DME settlement
Tier 2
Official statistical body
Intergovernmental or government statistical publication. Used when the primary issuer does not publish a machine-readable series.
JODI Oil · EIA bilateral trade data · IEA Oil Market Report · OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin · BP Statistical Review
Tier 3
Professional market reporting
Used only as a fallback or for context — never as the sole basis for a headline number. Clearly labelled when used.
Argus Media · S&P Global Platts · Kpler · Reuters output survey · Lloyd's List · Vortexa
Source hierarchy based on established energy data practice · IEA data quality guidelines · March 2026
Core formulas
How the numbers are calculated
Contango Energy does not generate synthetic prices. Every displayed value derives from a named upstream source via one of the following formulas.
Arab Light OSP vs Brent spread
Spread = Arab Light OSP (absolute) − ICE Brent spot
Arab Light absolute price is the Aramco monthly OSP differential plus the prevailing Oman/Dubai spot. Brent is the EIA daily RBRTE series. The spread is recomputed daily as Brent moves; the OSP differential is fixed monthly.
OSP absolute prices
OSP absolute = Oman/Dubai spot + differential vs O/D
All Gulf OSP absolute prices are computed this way. The differential is set monthly by each NOC. The Oman/Dubai spot is updated daily by the GitHub Actions pipeline via EIA. This means absolute OSP prices move daily even though differentials are monthly.
Spread vs Brent (all grades)
Spread vs Brent = OSP absolute − EIA Brent spot
Recalculated daily. A positive spread means the grade commands a premium to the global benchmark — which in March 2026 reflects the war premium on Gulf physical crude relative to the North Sea paper market.
Port utilisation
Utilisation % = current throughput ÷ nameplate capacity × 100
Nameplate capacities from official port authority publications and IEA infrastructure data. Current throughput from Kpler tanker tracking and Saudi Aramco operational statements. Updated as new data is available — not automated.
Update cadence
What updates when
Different series update at different frequencies. The cadence label on each data point tells you which category it belongs to. Stale data is never presented as current — the last update date is always shown.
| Series | Source | Cadence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent spot | EIA RBRTE | Daily (automated) | Live |
| WTI spot | EIA RWTC | Daily (automated) | Live |
| Oman/Dubai spot | EIA / DME | Daily (automated) | Live |
| Arab Light OSP differential | Aramco release | Monthly (~5th of month) | Monthly |
| Murban OSP differential | ADNOC release | Monthly (~10th) | Monthly |
| Basra Medium differential | SOMO Iraq | Monthly (manual) | Manual |
| Kuwait Export differential | KPC | Monthly (manual) | Manual |
| OPEC+ compliance | JMMC + Reuters survey | Monthly (manual) | Manual |
| Port utilisation | Kpler + Aramco | As published (manual) | Manual |
| Crisis timeline | IEA OMR + sourced press | Editorial (manual) | Manual |
Automation via GitHub Actions · Daily at 18:00 UTC · EIA OpenData API (free tier) · Manual updates via osp_update.py
Data quality policy
What we commit to
Contango Energy is a research and intelligence product, not a financial service. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. All figures are indicative. Source attributions are provided for independent verification.
Provenance
Every headline number maps to a named source. Source URLs are included in the data pipeline where available. No synthetic prices — displayed values derive from upstream observations.
Cadence clarity
Release-driven indicators are labelled as such — not marketed as real-time. The last-update date is always shown. A stale figure with a clear date is better than a fabricated current one.
Conflict sensitivity
Event framing uses explicit dates and transparent baseline assumptions. Crisis data (IEA OMR, Reuters, SOMO statements) is sourced and dated — not editorialised without attribution.
Methodology transparency
All formulas used to derive displayed values are published on this page. The data pipeline (updater.py, osp_update.py) is open source and available on GitHub.
Coverage gaps
Where a reliable direct source is not yet integrated, the gap is noted rather than filled with an estimate. Known gaps: Basra Medium and Kuwait Export automated feeds, port-level monthly throughput from official authorities.