Production · 2026
Output decline and the Yanbu reroute
Saudi Arabia entered the crisis with 10.2M bbl/d of production. The Hormuz closure immediately created an export bottleneck: tankers could not safely load at Ras Tanura or Jubail. Saudi Aramco responded within hours, rerouting crude through the East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The response was faster than any previous test of the contingency. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed on March 10 that the pipeline would reach 7M bbl/d within days. Bloomberg confirmed it hit that mark on March 28. But the bypass has a ceiling.
Production was cut ~2M bbl/d in the first weeks — not due to infrastructure damage, but because the pipeline could not absorb full Eastern Province output. Fields not connected to the pipeline — including some Arab Heavy and Arab Medium production — were shut in.
Reuters March 9 2026 · Bloomberg March 28 2026 · BloombergNEF April 2 2026 · Kpler · OPEC
Saudi Arabia crude production & Yanbu exports · M bbl/d · 2026
Crisis narrative · February–June 2026
The bypass that partially worked — and what it cost
When the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia faced the scenario it had prepared for since the 1980s: Hormuz denial. The East-West Pipeline was activated at maximum urgency.
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser · March 10 2026
"This is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."
The pipeline is a logistical triumph and a geographic rerouting of risk. Saudi Arabia traded Iranian proximity in the Gulf for exposure to Houthi and Iranian proxy forces in the Red Sea. Yanbu must still route tankers through Bab el-Mandeb. Attacks on Yanbu energy facilities, including the Samref refinery, have already occurred.
The second structural constraint: five Red Sea coast refineries absorb approximately 1.8M bbl/d of pipeline throughput before a single export barrel moves. With the pipeline at 7M bbl/d and 1.8M consumed domestically, the effective export window through Yanbu is ~5.2M bbl/d — well below the pre-crisis 7M bbl/d exported via Hormuz.
A third problem emerged in April–May: Arab buyers stopped buying. Dubai backwardation of $37/bbl caused Aramco's OSP formula to mechanically set differentials that made Saudi crude commercially unworkable for Asian refiners. The spread compressed to ~$8/bbl by May. As it normalises, OSPs are returning to workable levels — but Saudi Arabia lost weeks of sales volume.
As of mid-June 2026, the US and Iran have reached an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Industry analysts caution that even with a signed deal, clearing mines and resuming normal transit could take months. Saudi Arabia is expected to continue relying primarily on the Yanbu route until Hormuz transit is demonstrably safe and reliable. The agreement was formally signed June 18, with Iran permitting toll-free transit for 60 days. However, shipping industry confidence remains low due to mine-clearing operations and residual security risk — Kpler estimates a three-to-six-month timeline to normalize traffic patterns.
BloombergNEF April 2 2026 · Discovery Alert May 2026 · Daily News Egypt March 22 2026 · Horn Review March 17 2026
Infrastructure · June 2026 status
Key assets and their current status
East-West Pipeline (Petroline)
Eastern Province → Yanbu · 1,200 km
Design capacity7.0M bbl/d
Current throughput7.0M bbl/d
Reached capacityMarch 28 2026
Utilisation100%
Built 1981 for this exact scenario. Connects Abqaiq to Red Sea. Cannot be expanded in the short term. Critical vulnerability: Yanbu terminus under drone threat from Houthi-aligned forces.
Abqaiq Processing Complex
Eastern Province · Saudi Aramco
Processing capacity~7M bbl/d
Share of Saudi output~65%
StatusOperational
Last attackSep 2019
The single most critical oil facility on earth. Processes ~65% of Saudi output. The 2019 drone attack took 5.7M bbl/d offline. No reported attack in current crisis — but represents the ultimate systemic risk.
Ras Tanura Terminal & Refinery
Eastern Province · Arabian Gulf
Pre-crisis capacity~6M bbl/d
Current exportsNear zero
RouteHormuz-dependent
Refinery statusAttacked · shut
Saudi Arabia's primary Gulf export terminal. Effectively offline due to Hormuz closure. Refinery — largest in the kingdom — was struck by Iranian drones and halted. Shutdown caused immediate global price spike.
Yanbu Export Terminal
Red Sea coast · Medina Province
Export rate (peak)3.66M bbl/d
Pipeline feed7.0M bbl/d
Domestic refining (absorbs)~1.8M bbl/d
Net export window~5.2M bbl/d
Saudi Arabia's bypass lifeline. Samref refinery (Aramco/ExxonMobil JV) has been targeted. Grade mix concentrated in Arab Light only — Arab Heavy cannot be routed here. Exports still transit Bab el-Mandeb.
Reuters · Bloomberg · Daily News Egypt · Wikipedia 2026 Aramco refinery attack · BloombergNEF
Official Selling Prices · Live from prices.json · Aramco
Current OSPs and what they signal
Saudi Aramco publishes monthly OSPs as differentials to the Oman/Dubai average for Asian buyers. The table below is populated live from data/prices.json, updated daily by the Contango price automation.
| Grade |
API / S% |
Diff vs O/D |
Abs. price |
Spread vs Brent |
Month |
Signal |
| Loading OSP data… |
Saudi Aramco monthly OSP release · data/prices.json · Updated daily · Indicative spreads vs ICE Brent
Timeline · February–June 2026
How the Saudi crisis unfolded
Feb 28
2026
War begins
US-Israel strikes on Iran — Hormuz closure triggered
US and Israel begin strikes against Iran, targeting nuclear and missile programmes. Supreme leader Khamenei killed. Iran launches counter-strikes. Hormuz transit collapses within 48 hours. Saudi Arabia activates contingency planning immediately.
Reuters · Al Jazeera · Feb 28 2026
Mar 2–4
2026
Infrastructure attack
Ras Tanura refinery struck — Saudi Arabia activates Petroline
Iranian drone strikes hit Ras Tanura — Saudi Arabia's largest refinery. Aramco halts production and initiates emergency reroute through the East-West Pipeline. Aramco CEO Nasser: "the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."
Wikipedia · Reuters · OilPrice.com · March 2026
Mar 9
2026
Production cut
Aramco cuts output at two oilfields — pipeline bottleneck confirmed
Reuters exclusive: Aramco reducing output at two oilfields. Not damage-driven — export bottleneck means the pipeline cannot absorb full production. Heavy and medium grades without Yanbu connectivity are shut in. Output falls ~2M bbl/d.
Reuters · Exclusive · March 9 2026
Mar 17
2026
Pipeline milestone
East-West Pipeline reaches 80% — Saudi Arabia doubles pre-war utilisation
BloombergNEF estimates Saudi Arabia has doubled pre-war pipeline utilisation to 80% by March 17, adding ~3M bbl/d of incremental flows. Yanbu exports surge to 3.66M bbl/d five-day average. Aramco targets full 7M bbl/d capacity.
BloombergNEF · Bloomberg ship tracking · March 17 2026
Mar 28
2026
Capacity reached
Petroline hits 7M bbl/d maximum — Saudi bypass ceiling confirmed
Bloomberg confirms the East-West Pipeline operating at its 7M bbl/d maximum. This is the ceiling — no further bypass capacity available. Saudi Arabia has deployed its full contingency. The remaining gap to pre-crisis export levels depends entirely on Hormuz reopening.
Bloomberg · March 28 2026
Apr–May
2026
Commercial breakdown
OSP formula breaks Asian buyer economics — unsold cargoes accumulate
Dubai backwardation of $37/bbl forces Aramco's formula to set April OSPs that make Saudi crude unworkable for Asian refiners. Multiple buyers switch to US, West African, and Russian barrels. Backwardation compresses toward $8/bbl by May — OSPs expected to normalise.
Discovery Alert · May 2026 · S&P Platts · MacroMicro
Jun
2026
Superseded
Partial normalisation — Hormuz still effectively closed, reopening expected H2
EIA May STEO assumes Hormuz begins reopening in June. Baker Hughes and industry consensus expects full reopening in H2 2026. Saudi Arabia continues at Yanbu capacity. Spare capacity (2.43M bbl/d IEA estimate) remains Hormuz-trapped — deployable only when the strait reopens.
EIA STEO May 12 2026 · Baker Hughes Q1 earnings · April 24 2026
Jun 18
2026
Milestone
Hormuz deal signed — strait nominally reopens
The US and Iran formally signed an agreement permitting toll-free commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. Trump declared the strait open; however, shipping industry sources report continued caution due to mine-clearing operations, insurance costs, and residual security risk. Kpler estimates three to six months for traffic to normalize to pre-war patterns.
NPR · CNN · Washington Post · June 18 2026
Export destinations · Pre-crisis baseline
Who buys Saudi crude — and who lost supply
Saudi Arabia exports approximately 7M bbl/d in normal conditions. The Hormuz crisis disrupted all Gulf-routed flows. Yanbu now exports ~3.66M bbl/d — roughly half the pre-crisis level — predominantly Arab Light to buyers willing to pay elevated war premiums.
🇨🇳
China
1.8M
bbl/d · ~25% of exports
🇯🇵
Japan
1.2M
bbl/d · ~17% of exports
🇮🇳
India
1.0M
bbl/d · ~14% of exports
🇰🇷
South Korea
0.9M
bbl/d · ~13% of exports
🇺🇸
United States
0.5M
bbl/d · ~7% of exports
🌍
Other
1.6M
bbl/d · ~24% of exports
Saudi Aramco Annual Review 2025 · EIA bilateral trade data · Indicative · Pre-crisis baseline
Latest intelligence · Live from events.json · Updated daily
Recent Saudi signals
Populated automatically from data/events.json — updated daily by the Contango intelligence pipeline via GDELT + Claude Haiku extraction.